Future Probability

When you ask for opinions about future probability, you usually use will + base form or be going to + base form. However, there are other alternatives that are also common in spoken English.

We use some expressions to talk about how sure we are about something in the future.
Some expressions show high certainty, and others show low probability.

In the table below, you can find a collection of useful phrases and expressions that will help you convey future probabilities with confidence.

ProbabilityExpressionsStructureExample
Almost certain (≈99%)definitely

be bound to
Subject + will definitely + verb

Subject + be bound to + verb
Canada will definitely win the game.

Canada is bound to win the game.
Very likely (≈75%)probably

there’s a good chance

it’s likely that
Subject + will probably + verb

There’s a good chance (that) + subject + will + verb

It’s likely that + subject + will + verb
Canada will probably win the game.

There’s a good chance Canada will win the game.

It’s likely that Canada will win the game.
Possible (≈50%)might (not)

there’s a chance
Subject + might (not) + verb

There’s a chance (that) + subject + will + verb
Canada might win the game.

There’s a chance Canada will win the game.
Not very likely (≈25%)probably won’t

there’s a small chance

it’s unlikely that
Subject + probably won’t + verb

There’s a small chance (that) + subject + will + verb

It’s unlikely that + subject + will + verb
Canada probably won’t win the game.

It’s unlikely that Canada will win the game.
Almost impossible (≈1%)definitely won’t

I doubt
Subject + definitely won’t + verb

I doubt + subject + will + verb
Canada definitely won’t win the game.

I doubt Canada will win the game.

Important Grammar Notes

1. After modal verbs (might, will), use the base form of the verb.

  • Canada might win.
  • She will probably arrive late.

might wins
will probably arrives

2. “That” is optional in some expressions.

  • There’s a good chance (that) Canada will win.
  • It’s likely (that) they will arrive late.

3. “Probably” goes after “will”.

Correct:

  • She will probably come.

Incorrect:

  • ❌ She probably will come (possible but less natural for learners at this level).

Quick Examples

  • I think the test will probably be difficult.
  • Our team might win the game.
  • There’s a good chance we’ll finish early.
  • It’s unlikely that he’ll forget the meeting.
  • I doubt they will agree.

Let’s Practice

Practice 1

Practice 2

Speaking practice

  1. Imagine what life will be like in ten years’ time.
  2. Spin the wheel and discuss each statement on the spinning wheel
  3. Express how likely you think each will be.
  4. Negotiate where to place the statement next to the thermometer of probability, with high temperature meaning It’ll definitely … and cold temperatures meaning It definitely won’t … .
  5. Try to use a range of phrases during their negotiations.

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